How to read a market report without being fooled

Rob Redziniak

3 days ago

4 min read

Desk with laptop and charts overlooking Charleston

A market report is only as good as its definitions. Before you trust a number, check the area, the period, the measure and the count of sales behind it. Most misleading headlines come from comparing things that were never alike, such as a median to an average or one month to a different season.

Tell me what you are looking for, or ask for a home value, and I will help you narrow it down. Use the buyer consultation form or the home value request.

Check the area first

A report that covers a whole region can hide very different local markets. In my September 2026 update, the median sold price was $620,000 in Charleston County, $415,000 in Berkeley County and $370,200 in Dorchester County. A single blended figure would describe none of them well. Always ask which counties, towns or neighborhoods a number covers.

Check the period

Compare a month with the same month a year earlier, because the seasons change how many homes list and sell. A comparison of September with August can show a seasonal swing that says nothing about the market. Ask also whether the report shows a single month, a quarter or a rolling twelve months, because each smooths the picture differently.

Check the measure

Median is the middle sale. Average adds everything and divides, so a few expensive homes pull it up. In September 2026 I reported a $430,000 median and a $712,146 average for the tri-county area. See median or average.
Active listings count homes for sale at a point in time. Pending sales count homes under contract. Closed sales count homes that finished. They are three different things.
Days on market has more than one definition. Ask whether it is cumulative.

Check how many sales are behind it

A neighborhood with ten sales in a month can swing a lot from one or two unusual homes. Percent changes on small counts can look dramatic and mean little. I prefer to report counts along with percentages and to say when a sample is small.

Check the source and the date

Who compiled the report, from what data, and when? A good report names its source and its date. Mine names the monthly report I use and the month it covers, and I link the source for rates, such as Freddie Mac, which reported a 7.40% 30-year fixed average as of October 15, 2026. A number with no source or date is a number to set aside.

Watch for words that sell

"Prices will" or "now is the time" are predictions, not facts.
"Record" without the period it is a record for.
A chart with a shortened axis that makes a small change look large.
A percentage with no base number.
One lender's or brokerage's marketing report presented as neutral data.

Ask what the report cannot tell you

Even a clean report cannot say what your home is worth, whether a specific street will do better or what rates will do next. It describes what happened. I use it as a starting point and then look at the specific homes near the one you care about.

A quick checklist before you trust a number

Area, period, measure, sample size, source, date. If any of the six is missing, ask. I am glad to go through a report you found online and tell you what it does and does not say.

A worked example with invented numbers

These numbers are made up to show the habit. Suppose two reports describe the same month. Report A says the median price rose by 5 percent, based on 40 sales. Report B says it fell by 2 percent, based on 400 sales. Before you decide which is right, ask what each one covers. Report A may cover one neighborhood and Report B a whole county. Report A rests on far fewer sales, so a few unusual homes can move it. Neither report is wrong. They answer different questions, and your question is the one that decides which matters to you.

Common mistakes

Reading a headline and skipping the definitions.
Ignoring the number of sales behind a figure.
Comparing a month with the one before it without checking the season.
Assuming the whole county behaves like your street.
Letting one report make a decision that should rest on several.

My take: [ROB INPUT: add one or two sentences of your own view before this is published.]

Frequently asked questions

What is the most common mistake in reading a report?

Comparing numbers that were measured differently, such as a median with an average or different months.

How often should I check the market?

Monthly is enough for most people. I publish an update in the first 10 days of each month.

Can I trust an online home value estimate?

Treat it as a rough starting point. Ask me for a home value based on nearby closed sales.

Sources, checked October 21, 2026

Where to go next

Keep reading: median or average price, where my numbers come from, months of supply explained. Browse all posts in Market and rates.